Since the Jewish Calendar date of Nisan 14 falls on Monday 22 April 2024, Why are Jehovah's Witnesses holding their Memorial service on Sunday 24th March?
From my perspective as an evangelical, Trinitarian, Reformed baptist who takes an interest in all things chronological in the Bible, the JWs are correct, and the anomaly is with the Jewish choice of when to have Nisan.
And having their Memorial service on 24th March is fully consistent with their view that Jesus died at Passover on Friday, 1st April, AD 33 (Gregorian, 3rd April Julian calendar).
In this answer I shall not be following all the logic of the Watchtower which may or may not be what is written here. I do not know. I shall simply be asserting that a Memorial on 24th March is consistent with the JW view that Jesus died on Friday, 14th Nisan, Jewish Post-Exilic Calendar AD 33, 1st April (Gregorian). But the evidence Jesus died on Friday, 14th Nisan, 1st April AD 33, gregorian, is not included here.
The Three Phases of the Jewish Calendar
The official Jewish Calendar has had three phases throughout Jewish history.
The Mosaic Calendar was instituted by Moses when the Israelites left Egypt; in one particular it reflected its origin in Egypt: according to Colin Humphreys ("The Mystery of the Last Supper") like the Egyptian practice the months began not at the first appearance of the New Crescent Moon but rather at the disappearance of the Old Crescent Moon. Since the Old Crescent Moon is last seen in the pre-dawn morning sky, in the Mosaic Calendar each day began at dawn. It can be called the Israelite Pre-exilic Calendar because it was the formally followed calendar until the Babylonian Captivity. It is the only Jewish Calendar which is described in the Bible, so it could also be called The Jewish Biblical Calendar. It was kept in step with the true Solar Year by agricultural, rather than astronomical, observation: it was only the seventh month if the harvest had finished by the Day of Atonement (Leviticus 23:39), so an extra month was added if it had not been gathered, and the Day of Atonement held the following month called seventh month. (The month that would have been the seventh is called the intercalary month.) Also Aviv was the month when the barley was in the "aviv" - eared, but green and so not yet fully ripe - stage and suitable for a first fruits offering (Exodus 9:31-32, Leviticus 23:10-11). The "first month" of the religious calendar is in the Spring and the civil year began at the start of the 7th month (Exodus 12:2).. very confusing.. think of "first month" as a month name. In the Old Testament, even when secular details are being written about, the "first month" is Nisan/Aviv, the month in Spring, the "seventh month" is Tishri, the month in Autumn.
The Mosaic Calendar did allow Passover to be celebrated in the second month by individuals in certain situations (Numbers 9:1-11). One of those situations was "if he be in a journey afar off" (Numbers 9:10). Whether it was because of this allowance or other reasons the godly King Hezekiah and his advisors felt it pleasing to God for the whole nation to celebrate the Passover in a certain year in the second month (2 Chronicles 30:1-5) because they were not ready in the first. This allowance can be extended to include other practical reasons. But it did not mean the second month could become the usual month. The usual month was/is still required to be the first month.
The second phase of the calendar began after the return from captivity in Babylon. It is sometimes called The Jewish Post-exilic Calendar. It was a continuation of the Pre-Exilic Calendar in everything but with two exceptions. With respect to, firstly, the start of the month and, secondly, the start of the day it reflected the practice of the Babylonians: the day now started at sunset, and each month began at appearance of the New Crescent Moon, about two days later each month compared to the Mosaic Calendar (Again, see "The Mystery of the Last Supper", Colin Humphreys). The first month name changed from Aviv to Nisan, following the Babylonian name "Nisanu". However, the Jewish authorities did not follow the Babylonian Calendar of when Nisanu began in assessing when Nisan began, and thus when the Passover was to take place. This calendar was the official calendar until at least the end of the Kokhba Rebellion AD 130s, when so many Jews were killed, and so many of the remainder were carried off into Roman slavery.
The final phase began with the recommendations of Hillel II and was adopted in AD 359. Today it is simply called The Jewish Calendar, but let us call it here The Hillel II Jewish Calendar. By that time the Jewish diaspora was so extended across the ancient world that it was no longer possible to have a calendar based on observations in Jerusalem and then communicate the result to all the Jews worldwide. So Hillel created an entirely calculated calendar. All Jews, anywhere in the world could, and can today, simply follow Hillel's calculated calendar to know what date it is. Hillel tried to imitate the Post-Exilic Calendar as much as possible, so that he tried not only keep it in step with the Solar Year, but also to keep each month in step with the months of the Post-Exilic Calendar. In Hillel's modern calendar the beginning of each month starts with a "fictitious New Crescent Moon", and not an observed New Crescent Moon, and the month lengths are not due to observations. The adoption of Hillel's calendar was the last act of the Sanhedrin before it was finally dissolved. It played and plays a very significant role in helping to keep a united worldwide Jewish identity. It is this calendar that is still in use today.
Hillel tried to make an accurate calendar. But it was inevitable that over hundreds of years it's inaccuracies would become apparent. The imperfection of the calculation of the length of the (approx 19 year) metonic cycle of the moon has meant the whole calendar has shifted by nearly 8 days since the time of Hillel. (See wikipedia, Hebrew Calendar, accuracy, metonic cycle drift) meaning that in every 19 year lunar cycle in three of the years what would be 14th Nisan in the Hillel (calculated) Calendar falls before the Spring Equinox so another intercalary Adar month must be added beforehand; whereas the observed first Full Moon falls after the Spring Equinox, 14th Nisan, without needing an extra intercalary month. So Nisan and Passover end up being in what would be the second month in Hillel's Calendar when observation of the moon puts Nisan in the (correct) previous month. And because attempts to have a new Sanhedrin have so far always fallen apart, there has so far been no Jewish authority to declare a change to the Calendar acceptable to all the Jewish community worldwide. (And most Jews in Israel today probably do not care to see a change anyway.)
The Jehovah's Witnesses are correct to follow this rule and have their Memorial on 24th March rather than later.
Jews today might argue that Passover only needs to be in a spring month but Moses was told that Passover was to be held in a specific month.
The Lord said to Moses and Aaron in Egypt, This month is to be for you the first month, the first month of your year. Tell the whole community of Israel that on the tenth day of this month each man is to take a lamb for his family, one for each household. (Exodus 12:1-3)
The simple observation here is that the first month is a specific month: any spring month will not be sufficient. There needs to be good grounds to hold it in the following month. Certainly, it should not be planned to hold it in the second month (after the Spring Equinox).
When the post-exilic calendar was adopted Nisanu of the Babylonian Calendar was seen as the usual equivalent of (Moses's) pre-exilic first month Aviv (or Abib)
In the Babylonian Calendar the first New Moon after the Spring Equinox was always 1st of Nisanu and (for the Babylonian Calendar) marked the start of a New Year. This was the month that was generally adopted for the pre-exilic first month of Aviv/Abib. But notice that the pre-exilic Aviv was often earlier in the year than the Babylonian Nisanu, because sometimes the full moon on the 14th fell after the Spring Equinox whereas the 1st was before the Spring Equinox: in such a case an extra 13th month would be added into the Babylonian calendar and the following month would be the Babylonian month of Nisanu.
The Jehovah's Witnesses believe Jesus died on 3rd April AD 33
It is very interesting to examine the year of AD 33.
In that year there was a New Crescent Moon on the 21st March (Julian) (Parker & Dubberstein "Babylonian Chronology 626 BC to AD 75", 1956) and the Spring Equinox was on 22nd March (Julian) (e.g. https://www.beda.cz/~jirkaj/seasons/seasons.pdf).
For the Babylonian Calendar where 1st Nisan always had to follow after the Spring Equinox the month of Nisanu therefore needed to start on the next New Crescent Moon. So an extra (intercalary) month of Adar (II) was added before Nisanu could begin: so there were 13 months, not the usual 12, in the Babylonian year before the Babylonian New Year could start on 1st Nisanu.
But, for the Jews, Nisan started on 21st March in agreement with the rule given to Moses: Passover must be on 14th Nisan on the first full moon after the Spring Equinox.
The death of Jesus at Passover on AD 33 3rd April (Julian, 1st April Gregorian Calendar), if true - and it is accepted by the Watchtower - for the JW and those of us who agree, is evidence that the Jews continued to always select the first full moon (not the first New Moon) after the Spring Equinox as falling in Nisan, the month of Passover.
Or, as others have said, the New Crescent Moon nearest the Spring Equinox is for the Jews the 1st Nisan; it is the same as saying the first full moon after the equinox must always fall in Nisan.
In the 21st Century, for three years in every 19 year Metonic cycle, Hillel's calculated Full Moon for the month after Adar (which would normally be Nisan) occurs before the Spring Equinox, whereas the observed Full Moon occurs after the Spring Equinox. On these three occasions in 19 years an extra intercalcary Adar is added in Hillel's Calendar. So Nisan in the calculated Hillel Calendar falls a month later than it should in these three years.
The JWs are celebrating their Memorial on the correct full moon.